Every 7 Months: The Moore's Law for Agent Autonomy
METR published a paper measuring AI agent autonomy progress, showing it has doubled every 7 months since 2019 (GPT-2). They introduced a new metric, the 50%-task-completion time horizon, where models like Claude 3.7 Sonnet achieve 50% success in about 50 minutes. Projections estimate 1 day autonomy by 2028 and 1 month autonomy by late 2029. Meanwhile, Nvidia released Cosmos-Transfer1 for conditional world generation and GR00T-N1-2B, an open foundation model for humanoid robot reasoning with 2B parameters. Canopy Labs introduced Orpheus 3B, a high-quality text-to-speech model with zero-shot voice cloning and low latency. Meta reportedly delayed Llama-4 release due to performance issues. Microsoft launched Phi-4-multimodal.